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[Rant]Those of you complaining about the market and suggesting socialist intervention and regulation are nothing but a bunch of whining economic girly-men.

At least (most of, AFAIK) you have jobs. When I left full time education, I didn't have the luxury of wondering about how I was going to buy a house, I was more concerned about how I was going to feed myself on nothing but income support. There were few jobs around and house prices reflected that. The fact that you're on here getting uppity about the iniquity of the current system and asset price levels shows just how far economic confidence has improved since then.[/Rant]

On a more serious note, there will be a crash, but not as the tabloids know it. It'll be far worse. A friend of mine has analysed previous cycles from the last 35 years and there is a striking symmetry to them. The downtrends tend to last as long as the uptrends and the average retracement of real gains from cycle trough to peak and back to trough is about 79%. The current cycle has been on an uptrend for nearly 9 years. The expected real decline from the peak should be about 47% over 9 years from now (assuming we've hit the peak, which most surveys suggest we have). That works out at a real decline of 7% per annum. Factor in inflation of 3%, and you can expect to see an average nominal decline in property prices of 4% a year for the next 9 years.

Not a nice thought really. It's no good for those who want a crash so they can get on the ladder, and it's no good for those who've mortgaged themselves to the hilt in order to provide a home for their families and can only sit by and watch their asset devalue.

If, on the other hand, we get a rise in unemployment, then the market will correct faster at that point of crisis, but the analysis suggests that the downtrend will still only reach a bottom 9 years from now.

reg

:Quad:

<blockquote data-quote="ANOpax" data-source="post: 570956" data-attributes="member: 1016">[Rant]Those of you complaining about the market and suggesting socialist intervention and regulation are nothing but a bunch of whining economic girly-men.At least (most of, AFAIK) you have jobs.&nbsp; When I left full time education, I didn't have the luxury of wondering about how I was going to buy a house, I was more concerned about how I was going to feed myself on nothing but income support.&nbsp; There were few jobs around and house prices reflected that.&nbsp; The fact that you're on here getting uppity about the iniquity of the current system and asset price levels shows just how far economic confidence has improved since then.[/Rant]On a more serious note, there will be a crash, but not as the tabloids know it.&nbsp; It'll be far worse.&nbsp; A friend of mine has analysed previous cycles from the last 35 years and there is a striking symmetry to them.&nbsp; The downtrends tend to last as long as the uptrends and the average retracement of real gains from cycle trough to peak and back to trough is about 79%.&nbsp; The current cycle has been on an uptrend for nearly 9 years.&nbsp; The expected real decline from the peak should be about 47% over 9 years from now (assuming we've hit the peak, which most surveys suggest we have).&nbsp; That works out at a real decline of 7% per annum.&nbsp; Factor in inflation of 3%, and you can expect to see an average nominal decline in property prices of 4% a year for the next 9 years.&nbsp; Not a nice thought really. It's no good for those who want a crash so they can get on the ladder, and it's no good for those who've mortgaged themselves to the hilt in order to provide a home for their families and can only sit by and watch their asset devalue.If, on the other hand, we get a rise in unemployment, then the market will correct faster at that point of crisis, but the analysis suggests that the downtrend will still only reach a bottom 9 years from now.reg:Quad:</blockquote>

[QUOTE="ANOpax, post: 570956, member: 1016"] [Rant]Those of you complaining about the market and suggesting socialist intervention and regulation are nothing but a bunch of whining economic girly-men. At least (most of, AFAIK) you have jobs. When I left full time education, I didn't have the luxury of wondering about how I was going to buy a house, I was more concerned about how I was going to feed myself on nothing but income support. There were few jobs around and house prices reflected that. The fact that you're on here getting uppity about the iniquity of the current system and asset price levels shows just how far economic confidence has improved since then.[/Rant] On a more serious note, there will be a crash, but not as the tabloids know it. It'll be far worse. A friend of mine has analysed previous cycles from the last 35 years and there is a striking symmetry to them. The downtrends tend to last as long as the uptrends and the average retracement of real gains from cycle trough to peak and back to trough is about 79%. The current cycle has been on an uptrend for nearly 9 years. The expected real decline from the peak should be about 47% over 9 years from now (assuming we've hit the peak, which most surveys suggest we have). That works out at a real decline of 7% per annum. Factor in inflation of 3%, and you can expect to see an average nominal decline in property prices of 4% a year for the next 9 years. Not a nice thought really. It's no good for those who want a crash so they can get on the ladder, and it's no good for those who've mortgaged themselves to the hilt in order to provide a home for their families and can only sit by and watch their asset devalue. If, on the other hand, we get a rise in unemployment, then the market will correct faster at that point of crisis, but the analysis suggests that the downtrend will still only reach a bottom 9 years from now. reg :Quad: [/QUOTE]

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