I can no longer make out the weather. This winter we had snow around Lisbon; last year I saw snow from my window in February; then in August I had to retreat to a beach house (nice and cool) because of unbelievably hot spells. Popplars, usually in full leaf by now, are still in bud because February, Marc and April were coldish.
The normal statistics of weather no longer apply here in Iberia: it is almost always too cold or too hot for the season. What is more, we had a 'summer' weekend about a month ago, followed by typical winter weather for about a month. Yesterday we had 26 Centigrades... Today 27º-14º are predicted... -
One can say what one wants about 'normal' variation: I will submit that if we make a statistical analysis of deviation towards the mean (independently of this deviation being high or low) we will get a statistic significance.
Lisbon - well, the Lisbon region, he city is hotter because of the 'concrete effect' - is rightly famed for its mild weather: winter minima are usually mild (about 2-5) and summer months (August being the hotter month) are usually hot but not unbearably so.
Last year we had at least five heatwaves in August and two or three coldwaves in winter. This is statistically significant: a heat wave was an unusual penomenon, happening about once in 5 or 10 years and the previous really cold wave happened in 1985.
I have no doubt whatsoever that weather is not wat it was: I used to keep records, and everything seems different now.
Predictions are alarmist but I think, foremost, they are inaccurate: there are so many parameter changes going on that I think any unforeseen 'trigger' may be unleashed.
For instance I don't believe the Gulf Stream shutdown theory because the disruption of the thermohalyne (spell) circulation would convey larger amounts of heat into the Northern Atlantic and would, therefore, cause massive heating in the first place. This is because the Gulf Stream is wind conveyed, and the lack of sinking 'pumps' would just create large areas of hot water, with ensuing rain and defrosting.
I am really worried about the irresponsible way polititians and the media are behaving concerning weather change.
P.S.: Palm trees will NOT grow better than oaks. Oaks are slow trees, but they withstand cold; palms will always look half burned if temerature does not stay above 15º or so. I lived in Madeira, in Brasil, in France, in Belgium and in Portugal. I have watched the pathetic strivings of growing palm trees where winters are cold: they are always uggly, whereas in subtropical climates (let alone the tropics) they are really green and lush.
If Manchester wants to grow something for warmer weather, do it with chestnuts, plane trees, asch and maple species. Palms indeed!!