There may be trouble ahead............

Ive had to let some staff go, Ive put some others on a 3 day week for indef. The last time this happened was before my time in 1990. I cant believe how we've gone from our best ever year (50% increase in turnover last year) to a complete halt. Our competitors our even worse, at least we have some orders in, the big boys are dropping like flies. Oh dear

 

Oh dear. What business are you in? I remember 1990. Just finished Uni and finding a job was a nightmare.

 

We manufacture and install uPVC windows, doors, conservatories etc. I think we're the only ones with work in round here. Thankfully we've got around 700 customers on a database with about 90% of our work coming from recommendations so that should keep us going. On the downside we've got a fully computerised cleaning station coming next week which we ordered months ago which is costing a fortune.

 

it could just be the damn cold weather at no one wants to thing about conservatories and such like.

 

Thats what we're all hoping! Its across the board I have friends throughout the small business community and theyre all seriously down on performance. This is by far the worse its been since 1990, nevermind.

 

it's been on the cards for a while. everyone is living on credit. house prices are over inflated with banks having to give silly multiples of joint income for buyers to be able to afford and interest rates are so far in the crapper that it's not worth saving, pensions are a joke for my generation and we probably won't live far beyond peak oil or some impending middle eastern / usa madness.
luckily my profession seems to be unaffected by depressions etc. (bread and circuses and all that) but the next few years are going to be scary for those with huge mortgages and a lot of credit card debt. even those financial institutions who are running the debt buster loan deals are going to be hit hard. hey at least theres a silver lining those vultures deserve what they get imho.
cheers


julian

 

Welcome to what it's been like in Germany for the past 6 years or so ...

 

Theres no doubt that a recession is looming. As a grad of business economics I keep a keen interest on these matters. Theres no doubt that a dark cloud is looming, its all down to which way GB jumps. The CBI are saying that interest rates need to go up at least another 1% where as most business led groups are asking for the rate to drop back to 3.5% by next summer. The stupid thing is GB's forecast is way off and theres holes in the economy that are just getting bigger, I cant understand why this isnt more widely reported.

What I cant understand is why we still play rusian roulette with interest rates, a look a the graph in this article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4335529.stm shows how they play politics with our money, as a nation we're so short-sighted and all politicians are only interested in winning elections.

On a more personal note, the materials we use the most of, uPVC and glass are of course oil products, not far behind we have steel, great!

Oh well, its all good fun.

 

Interest rates will rise when the US economy hits the fan. When they have to hike their rates to support the [soon] collapsing dollar, we will follow suit IMHO, of course..

 

I've hopefully got all this to look forward to (hopefully in that I will run my own company) but I would dread having to lay of or sack workers. I think I will just get the cleaners to do it.

 

The cleaners go first dude! Laying staff off is awful its something that I'll never get use too. Sacking isnt a different matter, they deserve it.

 

Thank god I've never been lucky enough to have the readies to buy a house (prices rocketed both times). Maybe now, when the recession hits, people'll be less willing to constantly hike prices to make a quick buck, and it'll be a buyer's market - for anyone lucky enough to still have "buyer" status...

After all, people in Britain talk about what I'm employed in on a daily basis, so here's hoping they still need their website...

I've been saying it for years though - what comes up must come down. The stuff'll hit the fan again (and that'll mean the Conservatives will get back in, no doubt). Time to emigrate.

 

I should be okay with my house, its my first, puchased a year ago for 70K, its valued at 90k and they are selling so long as I stay in positive equity I'll be okay. Dont know how Im going to move on up though.

 

Well even you go into negative equity you are okay .... so long as you don't plan to sell it .... and the interest rates don't go so high you can't pay the mortage .... or you don't lose your job ....

 

Have you ever had to sack a member of staff and were you worried about any recussions(sp)?

PS It looks like spring is here in a few days time (17c on friday) so you may find sales increase.

Have you also looked at what might be going wrong? Do you know why people are not getting windows fitted? Maybe it is general uncertaincy so people are putting it off?

My dad always finds it picks up after quite periods though.

 

I bought my house 5 years ago and feel bloody lucky I bought it when I did. House prices had just made it into 6 figures but I quite a bit of equity saved to put in so I ended up borrowing just under 3 times my salary. That's a lot less than people are borrowing nowadays but house prices have skyrocketed and not it's just ridiculous.

T-Bone, I don't envy you being a boss that has to take decisions like letting people go. All part and parcel of running a business though I suppose.

Regards,

Jon