There may be trouble ahead............

[T-bone Sanchez]

Ive had to let some staff go, Ive put some others on a 3 day week for indef. The last time this happened was before my time in 1990. I cant believe how we've gone from our best ever year (50% increase in turnover last year) to a complete halt. Our competitors our even worse, at least we have some orders in, the big boys are dropping like flies. Oh dear

 

[Uncle Ants]

Ive had to let some staff go, Ive put some others on a 3 day week for indef. The last time this happened was before my time in 1990. I cant believe how we've gone from our best ever year (50% increase in turnover last year) to a complete halt. Our competitors our even worse, at least we have some orders in, the big boys are dropping like flies. Oh dear

Oh dear. What business are you in? I remember 1990. Just finished Uni and finding a job was a nightmare.

 

[T-bone Sanchez]

We manufacture and install uPVC windows, doors, conservatories etc. I think we're the only ones with work in round here. Thankfully we've got around 700 customers on a database with about 90% of our work coming from recommendations so that should keep us going. On the downside we've got a fully computerised cleaning station coming next week which we ordered months ago which is costing a fortune.

 

[Zoomer]

it could just be the damn cold weather at no one wants to thing about conservatories and such like.

 

[T-bone Sanchez]

it could just be the damn cold weather at no one wants to thing about conservatories and such like.

Thats what we're all hoping! Its across the board I have friends throughout the small business community and theyre all seriously down on performance. This is by far the worse its been since 1990, nevermind.

 

[julian2002]

it's been on the cards for a while. everyone is living on credit. house prices are over inflated with banks having to give silly multiples of joint income for buyers to be able to afford and interest rates are so far in the crapper that it's not worth saving, pensions are a joke for my generation and we probably won't live far beyond peak oil or some impending middle eastern / usa madness.
luckily my profession seems to be unaffected by depressions etc. (bread and circuses and all that) but the next few years are going to be scary for those with huge mortgages and a lot of credit card debt. even those financial institutions who are running the debt buster loan deals are going to be hit hard. hey at least theres a silver lining those vultures deserve what they get imho.
cheers


julian

 

[Markus S]

Welcome to what it's been like in Germany for the past 6 years or so ...

 

[T-bone Sanchez]

Theres no doubt that a recession is looming. As a grad of business economics I keep a keen interest on these matters. Theres no doubt that a dark cloud is looming, its all down to which way GB jumps. The CBI are saying that interest rates need to go up at least another 1% where as most business led groups are asking for the rate to drop back to 3.5% by next summer. The stupid thing is GB's forecast is way off and theres holes in the economy that are just getting bigger, I cant understand why this isnt more widely reported.

What I cant understand is why we still play rusian roulette with interest rates, a look a the graph in this article: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4335529.stm shows how they play politics with our money, as a nation we're so short-sighted and all politicians are only interested in winning elections.

On a more personal note, the materials we use the most of, uPVC and glass are of course oil products, not far behind we have steel, great!

Oh well, its all good fun.

 

[Graham C]

Interest rates will rise when the US economy hits the fan. When they have to hike their rates to support the [soon] collapsing dollar, we will follow suit IMHO, of course..

 

[amazingtrade]

I've hopefully got all this to look forward to (hopefully in that I will run my own company) but I would dread having to lay of or sack workers. I think I will just get the cleaners to do it.

 

[T-bone Sanchez]

I've hopefully got all this to look forward to (hopefully in that I will run my own company) but I would dread having to lay of or sack workers. I think I will just get the cleaners to do it.

The cleaners go first dude! Laying staff off is awful its something that I'll never get use too. Sacking isnt a different matter, they deserve it.

 

[domfjbrown]

Thank god I've never been lucky enough to have the readies to buy a house (prices rocketed both times). Maybe now, when the recession hits, people'll be less willing to constantly hike prices to make a quick buck, and it'll be a buyer's market - for anyone lucky enough to still have "buyer" status...

After all, people in Britain talk about what I'm employed in on a daily basis, so here's hoping they still need their website...

I've been saying it for years though - what comes up must come down. The stuff'll hit the fan again (and that'll mean the Conservatives will get back in, no doubt). Time to emigrate.

 

[T-bone Sanchez]

Thank god I've never been lucky enough to have the readies to buy a house (prices rocketed both times). Maybe now, when the recession hits, people'll be less willing to constantly hike prices to make a quick buck, and it'll be a buyer's market - for anyone lucky enough to still have "buyer" status...

After all, people in Britain talk about what I'm employed in on a daily basis, so here's hoping they still need their website...

I've been saying it for years though - what comes up must come down. The stuff'll hit the fan again (and that'll mean the Conservatives will get back in, no doubt). Time to emigrate.

I should be okay with my house, its my first, puchased a year ago for 70K, its valued at 90k and they are selling so long as I stay in positive equity I'll be okay. Dont know how Im going to move on up though.

 

[Uncle Ants]

I should be okay with my house, its my first, puchased a year ago for 70K, its valued at 90k and they are selling so long as I stay in positive equity I'll be okay. Dont know how Im going to move on up though.

Well even you go into negative equity you are okay .... so long as you don't plan to sell it .... and the interest rates don't go so high you can't pay the mortage .... or you don't lose your job ....

 

[amazingtrade]

The cleaners go first dude! Laying staff off is awful its something that I'll never get use too. Sacking isnt a different matter, they deserve it.

Have you ever had to sack a member of staff and were you worried about any recussions(sp)?

PS It looks like spring is here in a few days time (17c on friday) so you may find sales increase.

Have you also looked at what might be going wrong? Do you know why people are not getting windows fitted? Maybe it is general uncertaincy so people are putting it off?

My dad always finds it picks up after quite periods though.

 

[T-bone Sanchez]

Have you ever had to sack a member of staff and were you worried about any recussions(sp)?

Not really, from a legal point of view Im always make sure Im covered, we have an employment solicitor who set-up the legal side of our HR policy so I follow the guide-lines. Ive sacked a couple who Ive thought could be stupid enough to try something stupid like brickin our vehicles etc but its never happened and you cant think like that or else you'd never do anything, plus theyd come off worse in the end

Im sure the weather is having an adverse effect but theres more to it than that. The grape-vine is telling us that most competitors have nothing in, we're not that bad. Luckily we've never had a quiet period so its hit us. Ironically it might be a blessing, we've had a long hard look at the company and have found quite a few areas that need improvement, ineffeciency is the cancer of business and we've got it.

 

[JonR]

I bought my house 5 years ago and feel bloody lucky I bought it when I did. House prices had just made it into 6 figures but I quite a bit of equity saved to put in so I ended up borrowing just under 3 times my salary. That's a lot less than people are borrowing nowadays but house prices have skyrocketed and not it's just ridiculous.

T-Bone, I don't envy you being a boss that has to take decisions like letting people go. All part and parcel of running a business though I suppose.

Regards,

Jon

 

[amazingtrade]

Have you ever had to sack a member of staff and were you worried about any recussions(sp)?

Not really, from a legal point of view Im always make sure Im covered, we have an employment solicitor who set-up the legal side of our HR policy so I follow the guide-lines. Ive sacked a couple who Ive thought could be stupid enough to try something stupid like brickin our vehicles etc but its never happened and you cant think like that or else you'd never do anything, plus theyd come off worse in the end

Im sure the weather is having an adverse effect but theres more to it than that. The grape-vine is telling us that most competitors have nothing in, we're not that bad. Luckily we've never had a quiet period so its hit us. Ironically it might be a blessing, we've had a long hard look at the company and have found quite a few areas that need improvement, ineffeciency is the cancer of business and we've got it.

I guess that can always happen to any expanding business, it can be quite difficult to keep an eye on the management structures so you end up with many people doing each others jobs. I uncle used to have about 35 shops, he has one now, but it makes a huge profit becuase he is there to run it, so he sees exactly what is going on, where before some jobs had manaers which would fiddle things etc. He also probably expanded too quickly.

I guess as longs as there is some work in and you do restructure things you will survive.