Property crash?
- Thread starter garyi
- Start date
shit , im never gonna be able to buy a house.
ive only just breezed through this thread and thats my conclusion.
i think that there should be certian rules to housing.
for a start , people should only be allowed to own one house per household.
household being husband and wife and children living with them.
you should only be able to live in the house you own and not your 7 year old daughters house.
first time buyers should be given grants in relation to their annual incomes in order to be able to buy , or a different rate of interest.
all these greedy , buy to invest people should be forced to sell their other property's for the list price or the price they payed for it , whichever is the lowest.
owning a house should not only be for people who can afford it.
its everybody's right to have a home i recon.
they should be giving them away.
vote me for prime minister and we shall all have somewhere to live.
ive only just breezed through this thread and thats my conclusion.
i think that there should be certian rules to housing.
for a start , people should only be allowed to own one house per household.
household being husband and wife and children living with them.
you should only be able to live in the house you own and not your 7 year old daughters house.
first time buyers should be given grants in relation to their annual incomes in order to be able to buy , or a different rate of interest.
all these greedy , buy to invest people should be forced to sell their other property's for the list price or the price they payed for it , whichever is the lowest.
owning a house should not only be for people who can afford it.
its everybody's right to have a home i recon.
they should be giving them away.
vote me for prime minister and we shall all have somewhere to live.
I-S
Good Evening.... Infidel
Rob - and what of those who are single and likely to remain so (at least with the current state of the law)?
leonard smalls
GufmeisterGeneral
Sounds like you have very little grasp of how things work!!!rob said:
Next you'll be saying that everyone has a right to food, and that Tescos should sell at cost (I'd almost agree with that one - there's some blatant profiteering there as their profits last year have shown...). But I see nowt wrong with someone making a reasonable living so long as they're not ripping folks off.. After all, everyone's job costs someone else money!
FWIW, anyone can go and buy a duff property at auction, do it up and sell it on..
You can buy a terrace for £20k (if you look!), spend £10k on it doing (almost)all the work yourself and in 6 months sell at £60k. Hard work, but worth it.. No need to be VAT registered as doing up is VAT exempt, you can buy everything at trade (just go into your local builders merchants and ask for trade price - it's that easy!) and Bob's yer uncle.. Only thing is to be realistic - as crappy shows like Property Ladder so often illustrate, if you're ill-prepared you'll lose money..
amazingtrade
Mad Madchestoh fan
Where can you buy a terrace house for £30k? In those areas you have drug dealers on your door step. Also many of us have lives where we already live, I don't want to have to move 40 miles away to some poor area of Burnley just so I can buy a house.
i wish i could get one around here.
the houses where i live se london are very pricey. to be honest i dont think the houses round here are worth the over exagerated price tags they have dangling from them.
i dont mind people making a decent living either but lets face it , house prices are stupid these days and it is quite scary thinking about having a massive debt for the rest of my life, true a house is an investment but i dont want an investment , i want somewhere to start a family,bring up kids etc and id find it hard to do if i was forking out every month for a house i couldent really afford in the first place.
the houses where i live se london are very pricey. to be honest i dont think the houses round here are worth the over exagerated price tags they have dangling from them.
i dont mind people making a decent living either but lets face it , house prices are stupid these days and it is quite scary thinking about having a massive debt for the rest of my life, true a house is an investment but i dont want an investment , i want somewhere to start a family,bring up kids etc and id find it hard to do if i was forking out every month for a house i couldent really afford in the first place.
ANOpax
ESL-Meister
[Rant]Those of you complaining about the market and suggesting socialist intervention and regulation are nothing but a bunch of whining economic girly-men.
At least (most of, AFAIK) you have jobs. When I left full time education, I didn't have the luxury of wondering about how I was going to buy a house, I was more concerned about how I was going to feed myself on nothing but income support. There were few jobs around and house prices reflected that. The fact that you're on here getting uppity about the iniquity of the current system and asset price levels shows just how far economic confidence has improved since then.[/Rant]
On a more serious note, there will be a crash, but not as the tabloids know it. It'll be far worse. A friend of mine has analysed previous cycles from the last 35 years and there is a striking symmetry to them. The downtrends tend to last as long as the uptrends and the average retracement of real gains from cycle trough to peak and back to trough is about 79%. The current cycle has been on an uptrend for nearly 9 years. The expected real decline from the peak should be about 47% over 9 years from now (assuming we've hit the peak, which most surveys suggest we have). That works out at a real decline of 7% per annum. Factor in inflation of 3%, and you can expect to see an average nominal decline in property prices of 4% a year for the next 9 years.
Not a nice thought really. It's no good for those who want a crash so they can get on the ladder, and it's no good for those who've mortgaged themselves to the hilt in order to provide a home for their families and can only sit by and watch their asset devalue.
If, on the other hand, we get a rise in unemployment, then the market will correct faster at that point of crisis, but the analysis suggests that the downtrend will still only reach a bottom 9 years from now.
reg
:Quad:
At least (most of, AFAIK) you have jobs. When I left full time education, I didn't have the luxury of wondering about how I was going to buy a house, I was more concerned about how I was going to feed myself on nothing but income support. There were few jobs around and house prices reflected that. The fact that you're on here getting uppity about the iniquity of the current system and asset price levels shows just how far economic confidence has improved since then.[/Rant]
On a more serious note, there will be a crash, but not as the tabloids know it. It'll be far worse. A friend of mine has analysed previous cycles from the last 35 years and there is a striking symmetry to them. The downtrends tend to last as long as the uptrends and the average retracement of real gains from cycle trough to peak and back to trough is about 79%. The current cycle has been on an uptrend for nearly 9 years. The expected real decline from the peak should be about 47% over 9 years from now (assuming we've hit the peak, which most surveys suggest we have). That works out at a real decline of 7% per annum. Factor in inflation of 3%, and you can expect to see an average nominal decline in property prices of 4% a year for the next 9 years.
Not a nice thought really. It's no good for those who want a crash so they can get on the ladder, and it's no good for those who've mortgaged themselves to the hilt in order to provide a home for their families and can only sit by and watch their asset devalue.
If, on the other hand, we get a rise in unemployment, then the market will correct faster at that point of crisis, but the analysis suggests that the downtrend will still only reach a bottom 9 years from now.
reg
:Quad:
With UK average house prices in the month of August at £179,486 and average income as anything between £9,800 and £42,200 then the chance of owning property looks rather slim for a large portion of the population. But isn't this the way things have always been, so why should it change now?
Prehaps a better question to ask is are people expecting too much and chasing an unrealistic dream by wishing to own a house? After all renting is quite acceptable in other parts of the globe why not in the UK?
Prehaps a better question to ask is are people expecting too much and chasing an unrealistic dream by wishing to own a house? After all renting is quite acceptable in other parts of the globe why not in the UK?
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Lt Cdr Data
om
its simply not right or a good situation for everyone if a handful of greedy bastards have pushed prices to over 6x what the average person receives, period, how do normal people ever have a hope of getting a decent place?
I think this country in many ways is slowly bursting at the seams and on the brink of falling apart, perhaps it always has been and always will be, simply against the plain average joe.
I think this country in many ways is slowly bursting at the seams and on the brink of falling apart, perhaps it always has been and always will be, simply against the plain average joe.
if its always been this way , perhaps its time for a change.
if people spent their money on the high streets instead of putting it into over inflated mortgages then perhaps we would all benefit from a better economy.
it just boils down to the unfair distribution of wealth in this country.
if people spent their money on the high streets instead of putting it into over inflated mortgages then perhaps we would all benefit from a better economy.
it just boils down to the unfair distribution of wealth in this country.
ANOpax
ESL-Meister
What do you mean by this? It's precisely because people are remortgaging their homes and releasing equity that they are able to spend in the high street.
And how would you define the 'fair distribution of wealth'?
reg
:Quad:
garyi
Wish I had a Large Member
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yeah,I read that as well,so i put an offer in today and they upped the bloody price!!
you can't win
whatever the actual facts are,and no one seems to be able to agree,the one undisputable fact is................uncertainly,and that tips the balance in favour of buyers,just,but with low unemployment and a decent economy,it levels the playing field imo.
Prices will level off and let incomes catch up is my best guess
PLUS! when the building societies start offering 10 yr+ fixed deals you know they all think rates have maxed
you can't win
whatever the actual facts are,and no one seems to be able to agree,the one undisputable fact is................uncertainly,and that tips the balance in favour of buyers,just,but with low unemployment and a decent economy,it levels the playing field imo.
Prices will level off and let incomes catch up is my best guess
PLUS! when the building societies start offering 10 yr+ fixed deals you know they all think rates have maxed
Well,if it makes anyone feel anybetter,it's not just a UK thing,it's exactly the same here,a few years ago houses,apartments were affordable,but the last 6 years prices,through foriegn investers have gone through the roof,I believe it's now more exspensive to buy a house of resonable condition to new than the UK,so to normal folk,youngsters here face the same exact problems I read described in the UK,if you own a property you have a false sense of wealth,if you don't, you live with the family as most young people do and buy a car.
Bob McC
living the life of Riley
When I first started looking at buying a house 30 years ago you couldn't get a mortgage unless you'd been with a building society for a few years, had a large deposit saved with them and were prepared to grovel. My first house cost £7000, at the time I was on less than £1000 a year. I was brought up in an era where if you wanted a house you didn't have a car, or a foreign holiday or dare I say it, a bloody expensive hi-fi. Its always been hard to get a foothold on the housing market and the poor have never been able to buy property. This is why people work bloody hard to better themselves. If they succeed they buy a house. If they don't, they don't. They rent either in the private sector or in the diminishing council sector. House prices for a long time now have reflected the typical buyers as a couple both earning average salaries. If you're single you're up against it straight away. I've read some utter twaddle here about draconian measures to make things 'fairer'. Its never going to happen, we live in a free market economy. A consequence of such markets is that you either win or lose. I've got three teenage kids of my own and yes, its going to be very hard for them to buy their first house but the last thing I want is some state, ie other tax payers, subsidy for them. There has never been a permanent crash in the property market. I tried to sell a house in the late 80s. It took 3 years and accepting much less than I originally wanted. That house would now fetch 3 times what I accepted then. To be perfectly blunt we have encouraged a society that gives people totally unrealistic expectations for themselves. If you are at the lower end of the salary scale get out, get on or forget aspirations of property ownership.
Rant over.
Bob
Rant over.
Bob
Bob,
What you just said about house ownership seems to go against your signature! Totally agree with what you said though.
Bob - It can't be like-for-like though - my salary certainly hasn't doubled over the last few years like house prices have.
Can't wait for my income to double/triple with no additional effort then (at a rate far in excess of inflation)
hence the point I made previously. How many of those foreign investors are ex-pats driving up the prices abroad after cashing in on the boom over here?
Saab said:
Can't wait for my income to double/triple with no additional effort then (at a rate far in excess of inflation)
Adam said:
hence the point I made previously. How many of those foreign investors are ex-pats driving up the prices abroad after cashing in on the boom over here?
We don't need a crash. That is only bad for innocent normal people that have put themselves in debt to have a home. They don't deserve that.
What would be fair however would be a freeze in house prices. That way eventually wages would catch up and alow people to be able to afford housing, but house owners wouldn't suffer.
GTM
What would be fair however would be a freeze in house prices. That way eventually wages would catch up and alow people to be able to afford housing, but house owners wouldn't suffer.
GTM
